By Abdellah Boussouf ***
President of Venezuela’s National Assembly, Juan Guaidó, declared himself interim Venezuelan President, challenging Nicolas Maduro for the same position, as of January 19.
Guaidó’s declaration was not quite surprising, despite its considerable effect on Venezuela’s political, business and relational aspects, for the state’s economic accumulations have set the ground for a sudden administrative change in the big office.
Venezuelans everywhere have been expecting a “substitute president” to step up for the position ever since Maduro won the elections in May 2018, granting him a second term. However, it is safe to say that upon his election, Maduro was doomed to clean up the mess that Hugo Chávez left behind since his death in 2013. Chavez policies had considerable impacts on both national and international levels; besides, Venezuela -under Chavez ruling- was famous for its anti-imperialist slogans against the world’s policeman, known today as the U.S…
Venezuela’s political predicament under Chávez and Maduro’s reigns has affected the country’s relations with the rest of Latin America, especially with the United States.
The U.S administration, under George Bush, Barack Obama, or even Donald Trump, has failed to develop sound relations with Venezuela’s leadership. Current President, Donald Trump, however, acknowledged Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s acting head of state, until new, fair and genuine presidential elections take place in the country.
Today, Canada along with most Latin American countries, have recognized Guaidó as Venezuela’s interim President, while countries such as Germany, France and the Netherlands, have decided to give Maduro a few more days to pick a date for the new presidential ballot.
+Venezuela’s future at stake +
Analysts believe that the situation in Venezuela is likely to get out of control any day now, given that the country lived two full overwhelming decades due to violence, crime, economic stagnation, inflation and protests.
The number of people fleeing the economic / political crisis in Venezuela has increased significantly, for the number of Venezuelans with temporary residence permits in Colombia has reached 800,000, against 20,000 in Peru, 85,000 in Brazil, 130,000 in Argentina, 100,000 in Chile, 220,000 in Ecuador and about 37,000 in Bolivia; in addition, more Venezuelans have been seeking asylum in Spain, France and Italy…
On the other hand, poverty reached frightening rates, for the latter has been established at 23.6 per cent in 2014, then it rose to 61.3 per cent in 2017 and again to 87 per cent in 2018, according to a study by the Central University of Venezuela and Simon Bolivar University.
This situation led many Venezuelans to stand in long queues for bread, medicine, milk and eggs, due to a sudden drop in their purchasing power. Such circumstances set the ground for more protests in the streets, resulting in the death of 130 people, while thousands were wounded. In addition, over 500 political opponents, human rights activists and media professionals have been taken prisoners.
Interestingly, these data do not relate to a poor country with no natural resources.
Venezuela is known to hold the world’s largest oil reserves, besides being a member of the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC); however, Venezuela is listed among the world’s worst economies.
Venezuela’s oil production exceeded 3 million barrels per day in 1998, against 1.3 million only today, mainly due to the politicization adopted by the National Petroleum Company. The latter moved from a world leader in oil production to a company in jeopardy of bankruptcy, with a debt of up to $ 34 billion, especially since the party became more involved in the company’s management, for the number of employees has gone from 25,000 in 1998 to 140 thousand in 2017…
Nationalizing Venezuela’s prominent sectors has led foreign companies to shut down or move to different markets. Under such policy, the government had no other solution but to seek financial support and allocate its gold reserves to be able to afford medicines and goods.
Maduro’s administration allocated oil revenues from hard currency to obtain goods and products from other countries; however, the prices for oil barrels have been affected, leading to a series of crises that started in 2008.
Venezuela is a battleground for the world’s leading powers
Venezuela has been the stage for many ideological and political conflicts, which facilitated the internationalization of its local crisis to reach world powers such as the US, the European Parliament and the Security Council; in addition to different mediation axes such as Mexico and Uruguay.
Guaidó’s recognition by Trump and the European Union may set the stage for a military action inside Venezuela, which is likely to be followed by economic tutelage, especially when it comes to the right to allocate the country’s funds.
It is noteworthy that England’s Central Bank has agreed to Guaidó’s request of confiscating Maduro’s right to 31 tons of Venezuelan gold, which is likely to put the latter in a tight corner.
Just like any other country, Morocco chose to preserve its interests via recognizing and supporting Juan Guaidó, who declared himself Interim president, and the voice for a new Venezuela that contributes to the development and prosperity of its people.
USA and Europe may be seeking new opportunities in Venezuela, however, China and Russia, will not, for the most part, allow these powers to proceed to a military intervention, for both countries tend to preserve their economic and commercial interests in the region as a whole.
Under these circumstances, Maduro expressed his willingness to discuss the current situation with Guaidó, noting that Venezuela will keep selling oil to the US and that American people shall not be mistaken for their imperialist ruler. For his part, Guaidó ruled out civil war, stating that 90% of Venezuelans support his claim and that Maduro has no role to play in Venezuela’s future.
*** M. Abdallh Boussof is a Moroccan intellectual and Head of the Concil of Moroccan Community Abroad (CCME).
N/B: This article was translated from the original version in Arabic by Article19.
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